[Freddy]

Thought it would be fun to start a poll since we've been seeing all this news lately about how so much money is being pumped into AI around the world.

Kurzweil thinks in about 30 Years, others think sooner, some think later if at all.

Some reference material : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

Feel free to vote and discuss in this thread if you want to say why you voted a certain way.

[DemonRaven]

I figured it would be around 30 as well. Once they figure out how a brain/thought process works, completely, and can duplicate the process using programming techniques it will happen. Yes we do know alot about how the brain works but not everything. 

[Art]

I chose a little sooner based on Moore's Law and some other variables.
Probably won't be around for it anyhow so it's kind of moot for me. Interesting but moot.

[DemonRaven]

http://www.rdmag.com/news/2015/12/researchers-demonstrate-how-brain-can-handle-so-much-data

Researchers demonstrate how the brain can handle so much data

Humans learn to very quickly identify complex objects and variations of them. We generally recognize an "A" no matter what the font, texture or background, for example, or the face of a coworker even if she puts on a hat or changes her hairstyle. We also can identify an object when just a portion is visible, such as the corner of a bed or the hinge of a door. But how? Are there simple techniques that humans use across diverse tasks? And can such techniques be computationally replicated to improve computer vision, machine learning or robotic performance?

Researchers at Georgia Tech discovered that humans can categorize data using less than 1 percent of the original information, and validated an algorithm to explain human learning -- a method that also can be used for machine learning, data analysis and computer vision.

Okay well maybe it will come faster then we think. Imitating the way our brains thinks is key to translating that to AI. Looks like we might be bowing down yet in our lifetime to our robot overlords. I guess I better practise my ass kissing lol. That is if they even have one to kiss lol.

[8pla.net]

"Never", just took the lead.   Sometimes, I wonder if it already has.

[Art]

Never? Ohh They of little faith in the power of the machines...and processors and Moore's Law and Kurzweil's assertion:

"Non-biological intelligence is growing exponentially. Biological intelligence isn't growing at all or if it's growing, it's growing as such a slow rate that it's not noticeable. Which is why non-biological intelligence ultimately will become dominant."

Never? hello...wakey...wakey!

[8pla.net]

Art asked "Never?"

Well... The logic being, if it has already happened, then it will never happen again.

[squarebear]

Never for me too. I compare people trying to reproduce the brain in a computer to the alchemists of old trying to turn lead into gold. Just because they have similar properties doesn't mean they are the same.

[Don Patrick]

"over 50 years" is always the correct answer, because that makes it someone else's problem.
I don't want to say never because it isn't technically impossible, just extremely unlikely given that progress in the kind of self-improving AI that the story of a singularity is based on, is barely on its feet. i.e. Evolutionary algorithms are terribly inefficient even at dealing with a single mathematical constant in laboratory simulations, and self-reprogramming systems do not even exist as far as I actually do know.

[ivan.moony]

If chemical reactions can do it, so can copper chips... unless there is some magic involved that can't be emulated.

If it can be done, the question would only be about the speed of execution. I think that intelligence is about running a vast of combinations and picking the right one for some purpose. The greater the speed is, the more combinations are considered and given the finite search space there is a finite number of combinations. It is easy to pick an optimal combination once you have them all calculated, thus a greater processor speed gets us more combinations checked in a less time.

But in infinite search space there is some luck interfering with getting the combination that satisfies. Here is a space for a little bit of "magic" (you can call it lottery), but the process can be optimized through genetic algorithms, so it would be less than "magic", something like optimized "magic".

[DemonRaven]

There is  alot of technology that we have that many said would never happen. If it is possible it will end up being done.

[Art]

@ Don - Good answer!! "...someone else's problem..."

[OConnor_LFC]

I think we will reach AI sooner than we think, I've long had a theory about AI. My theory is that maybe we humans where made from another species. Our brain might have been the creation of another species. The similarities to the human brain and computers is uncanny. The way the internet works and the way our brain works.

[Ultron]

Technology has so many aspects, but if we are talking about a general technological leap then a huge milestone would be the transfer to organic / biological circuits, which by the way are today's most advanced form of machinery.


Talking A.I. - we are on the verge. Maybe somebody (along with some machine) already crossed the borderline however we shouldn't expect this to immediately go public - not while knowing of the military potential.


But of course I'm only referring to what is today considered by the general scientific community as an artificial intelligence. If we are to talk about A.I. like in the movies ( the true intelligence, the one that makes those machines "alive" and a whole new species ) then I wouldn't throw a number as a guess. For an event and discovery such as that we do not need technological advancements or more powerful quantum computers (as the Neural Networks go).
We are talking about a Man.. A genius.. We are talking about somebody on this planet reaching a point of intelligence and conscience that he figures it out. This takes the right books, the right events and the right weather in one's life. So it cannot be expected, it cannot be sped up with funds or more workers. This would be a man such as Sir Isaac Newton or Nikola Tesla.


So, regarding A.I. it depends on what kind of intelligence you are looking for. This is what I personally expect and think influences both.

[Korrelan]

I think a biologically inspired conscious AGI will be made public within the next three years, maybe sooner.

Meh! but what do I know. 

Hope you all had a great Xmas and have a most excellent new year.