[manases]

I guess we all know about this new study

The study is an updated Drake equation for 2020.
The Drake equation evaluates - how many aliens exist now in our galaxy. and are at the same technological level with us!

Not how many alien civilisation it is possible to have ever existed since the beginning or how many exist in the entire Universe in 14 bn years.
So this equation it is extremely limitative.
But wait!

They assume that ALL civilizations die at some point! How ridiculous is that?
With discovering the AI, connecting it to brain and gene manipulation, humans become smarter. The smarter, the less violent, hugely more advanced, less detectable.

Now - I know what they are assuming all civilizations die - it is pretty obvious.

If they would not assume that, then they will have to take into account all the alien civilizations that might have existed for billions of years in our galaxy and which are not dead and still present and that number would have been astronomic. (They even say in the study that the galaxy might have reached a maximum point of aliens around 6 billion years ago!)
They said that all previous alien civilizations died because otherwise, they would have acknowledged we are surrounded by a myriad of alien species extremely advanced.

Another ridiculous thing in this study is that they say - if there are no radio transmissions it means they are dead! REALLY? We are no longer using radio  - we are using cables! does this make us DEAD?
The missing of radio is not a sign of dead civilizations - it is a sign of their evolution from radio!

So it is just a fake drake equation made by some scared scientist. They are afraid to make the real equation.

The real equation must calculate how many aliens might have existed until now in the entire Universe.
We need this equation badly!

[infurl]

We are no longer using radio  - we are using cables!

If you want to be taken seriously you shouldn't make such ridiculous statements.

[manases]

Can't find how to share a link to comments but here it is this guy is explaining it

The amount of time a species might transmit signals might have nothing at all to do with extinction. Another reason they might stop transmitting signals we could possibly receive is because they advance beyond that.

In fact, we advanced beyond that, and a lot more quickly than 100 years. We've only really ever transmitted a few signals that would be even in principle receivable over the noise of the sun. Almost nothing we send out today could be received from even Alpha Centauri, let alone thousands of light years away. Indeed, we actually broadcast very few signals at all anymore, with the vast majority of our communication coming through cables, fiber optics, and beam-forming, narrow-band transmissions at just the right amount of power to be received by whatever we're talking to (usually satellites in geosynchronous orbit). So, if other civilizations follow our pattern, that factor is not 100 years. It's like... maybe half a dozen bursts between a few seconds and a few years, over the course of 100 years.

Add in the extreme attenuation of such signals with distance (1/r², remember), and there could be an alien civilization in one of the hundred closest stars to Earth, broadcasting powerful broadband signals in all directions akin to our loudest omnidirectional signals, and even if we were looking right at them with our very best radio telescopes, and our best techniques to block out the overwhelming noise from their star... and we'd never notice.

Directional signals can of course be much longer-ranged for much less power expenditure... but then you have to pick how directional you think they'd be, and account for that in your determination for if their signals would even be aimed at us in the first place, and then account for attenuation. Coherent signals are even better at long range, but the chances of an alien's laser signal hitting any given patch of ground on Earth for more than a few femtoseconds as it swept across us are absurdly tiny.

So even if you assume that electromagnetic communication is the best there will ever be (I certainly hope it isn't!), and that the galaxy is positively teeming with millions of species at or above our tech level, we could easily not see or hear anything. In fact, the possibility that we might hear something at all, pretty heavily implies that either a) the aliens in question are deeply stupid and don't use very efficient communication methods, even long after they should have figured them out (which pretty much precludes advanced civilization in the first place) or b) the aliens in question are deliberately trying to broadcast their presence, either on an incomprehensibly vast scale with an omnidirectional beacon, or *to us*, implying that they already know we're here and have chosen not to do so yet.

Basically, we are using radio signals which cannot reach very far and we are also using a lot of cables and optic fibers.

[manases]

Is anyone here good with math to help me build an online calculator for chances we are not alone in the Universe?
Something similar to the Drakes equation but which applies to the whole Universe and covers the whole time not only the present?

[manases]

This calculator should produce as a result:

- the chances that there existed at least one another intelligent alien civilization in the entire Universe existence.
- an estimation of how many intelligent aliens ever existed until now
- how many aliens reached singularity so far - that is the moment they have AI, connect infinite powerful computers to their brains and discover in a short amount of time pretty much all that is to be discovered (including maybe all other alien species which have already reached the singularity).
(or how do we call this phase?)
- how many aliens might have visited us so far

[Art]

Perhaps one day you will come to realize that all civilizations eventually die. The average civilization lasts between 300 to 400 years then it falls.

Everything has a finite lifespan! Eventually every living thing...humans, plants, animals, trees, die! Nothing is forever and nothing lasts forever. Even suns and stars die/run out of gas.

No more radio? Se you're living in your own world with earbuds and streaming video?

I recently had surgery that used Radio Frequency to work with veins. Around the world they use huge Radio telescopes to listen to galaxies, searching for extraterrestrial life. Emergency responders of all kinds use and rely on radio to communicate as do truckers as the CB is a type of radio. Radio telemetry enables communication from Earth to the ISS. Vehicles are still equipped with Radios that are now capable of doing many things. But to say that Radio is dead? Not quite...

OK...keep thinking that.

[manases]

This recent study (May 18, 2020) uses Bayesian statistics and they discovered a  9:1 chance for life to appears spontaneously on all Earth-like planets.
https://news.columbia.edu/life-intelligence-universe-earth-bayesian-statistics

Perhaps one day you will come to realize that all civilizations eventually die. The average civilization lasts between 300 to 400 years then it falls.

The average not civilization but culture in a civilisation.

Why would a civilisation die if they can evolve to using less and more efficient resources, can move easily to different planets or stars?
Maybe enhance individuals so they don't die anymore but have self-maintaining parts?
Why use an old mindset to imagine the most distant and the most advanced possible future?
Why?

Earth species did not died in 300 years! We are 200 000 years old or so and keep going!
Why use a culture in a civilisation and say this is what a civilisation behaves when our civilisation - the only example we have - did not behaved like that?
Why?

[manases]

So this drake equation - let's call it the Universal Drake Equation.

This should use
- total number of Earth-like planets in the Universe PN (planet number)
- use 9:1 for the chances of life spontaneously appearing (PLC - primordial life chances)
- use 3:2 for intelligent life to appear from initial life forms (ILchanches- intelligent life chances)
from the previously mentioned  study https://news.columbia.edu/life-intelligence-universe-earth-bayesian-statistics

We will also use time as a factor because the conditions on a planet change dramatically.
 - we will use 5 billion years for an intelligent alien life cycle. So we have to multiply each planet chances with the avg ILCicle (intelligent life cycle)
- we should find an estimate for the number of times the conditions on a planet change dramatically - reset basically from 0 - RT (reset times)
Also, not all planets experience such changes - only a number fo them. This is good and bad four our intelligent life number as RT interrupts the 5 billion life cycle but it allows for more microscopic life chances.

So our variables are
- PN (Earth-like planets in the Universe)
- PLC - primordial life chances - 9:1
- ILchanches (intelligent life chances - 3:2)
- ILCicle (intelligent life cycle - 5 billion years)
- RT (reset times - we need a scientific research for this number - we can put a... 1 planet in 10 got its conditions completely reset? in its lifetime)

I am not sure how to put the variable int to the equation.
Please help!

This should produce TN = total number of intelligent alien civilizations that appeared in our Universe from the Big Bang!
So not the number they are today, not the number that survived the Fermis paradox, not the number that visited us!
It is the number of intelligent aliens that reached our preset technological stage.
Maybe they all died after that or all survived, that is the next step to look at.

[LOCKSUIT]

I'm liking these young forum users. He's 21 and much more aware/ talkative than the others (in a good but, and, bad way). I'm just noticing a big trend. Even myself was just like manases, I was just there 4 years ago when I was 21 - you can see all my posts on this forum since I was 20, I look like a loony toon. I'm not trying to say you're not smart or anything I just noticed a large amazing trend for sure now. An interesting one. I noticed for example you responded back at Art correcting him for sure (you "had" to say it) saying NO 200,000+ years we have been here for, not 300! It's very hard analyzing text but I think I'm seeing a pattern. There's just, so much energy in them :)

[infurl]

@Locksuit even some of your most recent posts are still cause for concern about your mental health. You still sound like a raving lunatic more often than not. However as long as you don't threaten anyone or try to hijack other topics, as far as I'm concerned, you can stay. Also, your social skills are slowly improving so I hope your participation here will continue to help you become a better person.

@manses you are certainly contributing a lot, some of it quite interesting, but this line of enquiry sounds like an attempt to fabricate a formula that will give you the answer that you want to see, rather than an answer that's grounded in reality. Science makes the most progress when it encounters the unexpected and seeks an explanation for it.

[manases]

Locksuit you remind me of someone who called himself Eldras way back on mindx forums. Is this you, Eldras?

Infurl - is not fair to dismiss me or the formula because I have an interest in it. Everyone who ever worked on a formula must have had an interest in their formula. You reach the point of working on a formula when you need something confirmed or infirmed mathematically.
You could criticize the formula itself that would be valid and constructive criticism.

[manases]

Ha!

I found something else maybe even more important:
https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/news/1350/are-we-alone-in-the-universe-revisiting-the-drake-equation/#:~:text=Their%20equation%2C%20A%3DNast,Universe%2C%20or%20just%20our%20Galaxy.

By applying the new exoplanet data to the universe’s 2 x 10 to the 22nd power stars, Frank and Sullivan find that human civilization is likely to be unique in the cosmos only if the odds of a civilization developing on a habitable planet are less than about one in 10 billion trillion, or one part in 10 to the 22nd power.

“One in 10 billion trillion is incredibly small,” says Frank. “To me, this implies that other intelligent, technology producing species very likely have evolved before us. Think of it this way. Before our result you’d be considered a pessimist if you imagined the probability of evolving a civilization on a habitable planet were, say, one in a trillion. But even that guess, one chance in a trillion, implies that what has happened here on Earth with humanity has in fact happened about a 10 billion other times over cosmic history!”

Those numbers refer to Intelligent Life, not primordial life!

We are talking probabilistically about billion of alien species over cosmic history!
If we use the 10 billion number and apply a 1% chance for them to survive a Fermis paradox and reach the point when they can't learn anything new (singularity) and 1% FTL possibility, then we have 1 million hyper-advanced alien civilisations who reached singularity, FTL and might have visited us!


And the 10 billion civilisations is a hugely pessimistic number. The latest study says Intelligent Life chances on a Earth-like planet are 3:2 not 1:trillion

Why isn't this mainstream?
This needs to become mainstream!

[LOCKSUIT]

No, I've never named myself Eldras in my entire life, yet.

Why isn't this mainstream?
This needs to become mainstream!

Bro, this is what I was saying 5 years back when I was 20. Except I was pushing my Theory Of Everything that was 100% right. It wasn't.

I still think that today though. As soon as I make a discovery, all others "should" be updated to my level. Though I can't push my ideas in others mouths so easy or make it viral. I also realize to be careful you are so sure of the idea before waste all human's time reading your viral "news". If it's false, it also degrades your credibility.

edit: And sometimes, things I knew were already out there / known. You must search.

[Art]

I am now of the opinion that a couple of these young people who shall not be named, were actually brothers separated from each other at an early age. That hypothesis would explain a lot of things for sure.

The Roman Civilization, Greek civilization, the Mayan, Incan, Aztec, Egyptian, etc. NOT Species!! There is a difference. Civilizations usually an average of 330 years! The Aksumite Empire lasted 1100 years and the Vedic period in India, 1,000 years.

The SPECIES of bipedal humans did not die out!! (obviously).

Then again...I'm sure it's time to leave this journey. Good luck with comparing theories!

Happy Trails!

[LOCKSUIT]

https://ibb.co/yWcG2MZ

gets funnier the older the post